Market Commentary for Anxious Queers

Money Musings Newsletter: April 2025

I wrote this piece before the bombshell tariff announcement last Wednesday sent U.S. markets plunging over -10% and international markets down -8% in the largest drop since March of 2020. This adds big financial news to the general sense of fear affecting minority communities, including trans people and activists. I hope that this will ground you in context and remind youthat this is not the first or the last thing we will surmount together.

Investing Itself

I began my career in financial planning in 2014, when the financial crisis had started to recede in the minds of investors. Still, over this decade, I have seen a lot of highs and lows–Brexit, rising interest rates, the first Trump presidency, Covid, supply chain issues and the resurgence of inflation, countries threatening war and warring, and so on.

Investors often see a short-term downturn in the market and suddenly cease to believe in the long-term viability of their investment strategy—it’s such a recognizable phenomenon that clocking it is as routine for a financial advisor as a case of strep throat might be to a physician. Feelings are fine, but when lowered prices in the stock market actually induce you to sell, and increased prices induce you to buy, you have a big problem. Behavioral drag in performance is well documented, and it’s the advisor’s job to help clients create an investment strategy that they can live with when things get bad (as we know they will at times). For example, during the financial crisis, if you had done nothing, your portfolio would have recovered from a 50% loss within a couple years. If you sold at the bottom and bought back at the top, you’ve simply cut your wealth in half.

Queer people tend to be very skeptical of investing, and I am too. But in the world as it is today, without investing, you might need to save well over half of your income to have enough to put aside to live on after you are too old to work. You can simply decide not to provide for your elder self, or adopt the assumption that you will have a severely diminished quality of life in your most vulnerable years. You may settle to hope that others will be around to provide for you. After weighing the options, most people agree to save 15-25% of their income into invested accounts (including retirement plans) in hopes of growing their money into a nest egg that they can live on when they’re old.

You may say that it is foolish to believe that the values of stocks will grow infinitely, and sure, slowing growth is a possibility. Or you might say that investing is the same as gambling, and it’s true that investing and gambling both involve uncertainty, risk and reward. But it’s important to consider that when you invest in the stock market, you are buying part of many businesses, built on the sale of real goods and services. Your portfolio may include hundreds of companies large and small, across the world working in multiple currencies, that are growing food, building homes, picking up trash, and helping hospitals manage medical records. When these investments manifest as numbers on a financial statement, your wealth may appear more illusory than it really is. Is it really so far-fetched to think that money put towards all of the economic endeavors of the world may return more in the long-term than cash under your mattress?

Finally, I believe that you can save and invest a portion of your income over the long term without sacrificing a full and satisfying life now. You form relationships, build community, learn skills, do things you love, in short, you live a life. If the future is at all like it is today and you invest, you may also be able to enjoy your old age without destitution. If on the other hand, the world ends–is not spending everything you could have going to be your biggest regret?

This Time Is Different

In these ten years, most of my conversations about investing and the apocalypse have been sort of theoretical. They have not coincided too closely with news events, and my clients, while distrustful of the world order, have not been deeply afraid. Now, it’s different.

This is a time when basically every part of the government is being attacked, and there is a ton of uncertainty about what form it will take even in the next year. It’s frightening to have the nation led by wackos who would defund an entire university for letting a trans woman swim. I think it makes sense that so many trans people are questioning whether they have a future in the U.S. Fear makes sense, and I’m aware that the future of my life and physical body are at risk.

And yet–we still need to take a breath and get perspective. The flight response can flatten existence into extremes, making it seem like things getting worse is the same as everything is lost. And the sense that everything is about to be lost can cause you to make decisions that are not constructive.

In times of my personal life when it felt like everything was bad, I’ve used a mood tracker to tune in more closely to the nuances of my experience. This mood of 4 turned into a 5 when I saw something funny, or the 9 that turned to a 1 when I got bad news was a 3 by noon that day. Knowing it is impermanent is part of it, but it’s also just being there and living it is actually less painful than the flattened perception of life and the fear that gnaws around the edges when you’re trying to look away.

I recently saw the academy award winning film No Other Land, which follows residents of the occupied West Bank's Masafer Yatta, where homes are demolished and lives are endangered over and over again by Israeli forces and settlers. What struck me was that in the midst of their abject struggle, we saw that they were people living lives that included love, meaning, and presence. Maybe bravery is when you’re able to see the fear and the bad, and hold onto enough presence to make meaningful contributions instead of disappearing into yourself.

First, Do No Harm

There are a lot of things that you can do now to increase resilience for you and the community as a whole. Joining in neighborhood projects, meeting neighbors, staying connected to loved ones, getting involved in organizations–these are great ways to use the frantic energy. Recently I helped a group of trans mascs organize a clothing swap at the Quaker meetinghouse where I’m a member. It was really grounding to do something physical that involved a lot of people being grateful to each other. Even if millions of people trying to make a positive difference doesn’t turn the tide, I think that in a disaster, community is as good of a resource as money.

On an individual level, you can also improve your position in ways that don’t have the same detrimental effects of making dramatic shifts to your investments or banking. Maybe you could work your way down this list first, and then reassess. An interviewer asked Martha Stewart what she was doing to prepare for prison and she said “going to the gynecologist”--and I think that is the right approach to impending hardship. What are the things I know I need to do? How can my fear work for me, and not the other way around?

Here are some ideas of things to focus on that would increase your safety outside of retirement/investing:

• Create a spending plan that is clear and intentional and moves you towards your goals

• Create an emergency savings account with six months of expenses in it

• Create a will and advance directive, and then have it witnessed and notarized

• Organize your financial and important personal documents, keeping digital copies

• Start using a password manager with unique and randomly generated passwords of 12 or more characters

• See the doctor for checkups, get caught up on vaccines and screenings

• If you own a car, address all preventative maintenance needed

• Double down on practices that make you feel grounded and calm

• Tend to valued relationships within your support network

• Get to know your neighbors and get involved with local community

We Really, Really Don't Know the Future

My final thought is to remember that we don’t know the future. The downside is that nothing in life is guaranteed. The upside is that when you hear people loudly proclaiming this and that bad thing will happen or will get worse, you know it’s just their opinion and take it with a grain of salt.

Will the U.S. Dollar become worthless? Will FDIC insurance cease to exist? Will targeted minorities have their assets seized? I really do not think so. What I know is that as of today, we still have more freedom and more stability than many, many places in the world. And even in places such as Russia with significantly fewer civil liberties, life is lived, and people still have money. There is a vast distance between today and a time when nothing exists anymore.

So set up your financial plan in a way that makes sense and is reasonable given what we know now. Then, focus on other things.

These things I know for sure: People have been through this and worse before. Queer people have always been here and we always will be. We still have each other.

DISCLOSURES

The opinions expressed in this material do not necessarily reflect the views of LPL Financial.

My newsletters are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual.

Investing involves risks including possible loss of principal. No investment strategy or risk

management technique can guarantee return or eliminate risk in all market environments

Query Capital Financial Guidance and LPL Financial do not provide legal advice or tax services. Please consult your legal advisor or tax advisor regarding your specific situation.